by Bob Williams, Stevensville
Go to this well liked, climate depiction site, from the University of Maine. Have a look at colorful graphics, of global, expected high temperature anomalies, at two meters above ground surface, for the next three, five, and ten, days. Look at Alaska.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/
Select different global depictions like:
• Average 2m Temperature
• Average 2m Temperature Anomaly
• Maximum 2m Temperature
Go to this site to scan outlook maps of high temperature anomalies for the end of June. Be ready for a surprise:
The last severe heatwave (well, er, the one still winding down) was focused across interior SW into southern/central CA. The next one will be centered on northern CA and much of the Pacific NW. Additional records may be set, once again, about a week from now. #CAwx #ORwx #CAfire https://t.co/6XXBODbQqf
— Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) June 19, 2021
More importantly, take a good look at the color coded map for early June 2020 actual drought conditions in the Western USA. Compare that map, to maps of observed drought conditions in the last five years, in the Western USA.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/11/climate/california-western-drought-map.html
How come this summer, the West may be so hot and dry?
Part of the answer is that already warmed oceans are now absorbing less solar heat energy, while land masses, say in far Eastern Siberia, also in the American West, are absorbing more solar irradiance heat energy.
For years, I’ve watched how high pressure over the hot Southwest desert pumps hot air flow here into the Bitterroot Valley. Could be, that this summer, more than the usual volume of windy, warm air from the Southwest will heat low lying forests West of Hamilton.
You too may have observed that very large, expanding, high pressure areas, seem to divert, even block, on coming low pressure, moisture laden, systems.
This year, will the wet monsoon Southwesterly flow that transports ocean moisture across Eastern Montana, even into Alberta, in July to mid September, be diverted by high temperature, high pressure cells?
This year, will a warmed Arctic weaken the Aleutian low pressure systems that every winter, jointly serve to transport a tall column of water over the Northwestern USA?
When will winter snow arrive this year, in sufficient amount to extinguish forest fires in Western USA?
Perhaps this summer, USFS wildland fire managers will consider dialing back plans to let timber fires burn until first snowfall.