by Nathan Boddy
Darwin Ernst wears many hats: city councilor representing Ward 3 in Hamilton, chair of the city’s Board of Adjustments, chair of the county tax appeal board, chair of the Bitterroot Valley Community College and more. Behind all those obligations, however, Ernst calls himself a person who enjoys puzzling things out. And one of the puzzles that he undertakes is an annual compilation of real estate data pertaining to the Bitterroot Valley.
“I’m a data junkie, or a puzzle maker,” he explained recently while discussing the data from 2024. “I think that’s the best way to describe it, because I want to know how to put that puzzle together so that it’s meaningful for somebody to look at and say, ‘oh, I get it.’”
In addition to his many other roles, Ernst also serves on the governing board of the Montana Regional Multiple Listing Service (MRMLS), which compiles real estate data from central and western Montana. That annual data is the starting point for the collection that Ernst puts together for the Bitterroot Valley each year.
“What I’m doing is taking that data, extracting it out, and getting rid of all the fluff,” he said. As an example, he mentioned how only a few sales of very high dollar, or large acreage, properties can skew data in such a way that it fails to easily capture trends or realities on the ground. He added that he often sees proclamations about what the market might be doing from one week to another based on inclusions of those outlier sales, which he says is totally irrelevant.
“Which is why I always talk about median sale price,” he said. “I want to know what’s in the middle, not what all the outskirt stuff is.”
Ernst’s analyzed data for 2024 shows that sales are leveling off, albeit at a price point which is more than double what it was not long ago.
“We had 100% increase in property values over five years,” says Ernst. “If you look at the raw data, that’s really the teller here. If you look back at say 2016, your median sale price was around $233,000. By 2021 you’re at $465,000.”
Ernst compiles the data each year for anyone who is interested in, or transacts with, the real estate marketplace in the valley. Ernst is an appraiser, although he no longer performs those services locally. But his work as a broker for Eickert Realty does mean that he pays close attention to the data himself.
“I want to know this stuff because, when I take a client to a house, I want to know if it’s priced right. Or if I’m looking to sell a property, I want to know that I’m in the ballpark,” he said.
The insight Ernst has about real estate in the Bitterroot Valley certainly informs many of the decisions he is called upon to help guide while serving in the roles he does. One of those roles is his position on the Bitterroot Affordable Housing Coalition, which of course grapples with the high costs and low availability of housing in an area that is also chronically short of qualified employees. And while Ernst feels as though a drop in interest rates may once again stimulate the market, that alone may not be the biggest factor that increases population in the valley.
“It’s going to be things like California’s wildfires,” he said in reference to the catastrophic fires that are currently raging outside of Los Angeles. “That’s going to make a huge impact here.”
Ernst suggests that some of those who have experienced the tragic loss of their homes, especially when faced with an inability to gain insurance or will to rebuild, may turn their eyes toward Montana.
“They’re scratching their heads, [asking themselves] where should they live? If they can work remotely or part-time, what’s The Last Best Place? We advertise it all the time. We see it on ‘Yellowstone,’” he said. “All you have to do is drive through town one time and get a feel for everything and go, that’s a pretty cool place to live. So they’re coming.”
Ernst’s data analysis is available on his website, https://tekboys.com.
